Amandla Okusebenzisa Ikhompyutha E-AI Akhanyisa Isidingo Semakethe; Amanani E-G652D G657A2 Fiber Optic Akhuphukela eNew Highs Point

Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2026, imakethe ye-optical fiber ibone ukwanda okungavamile kwamanani. Intengo ye-optical fiber ejwayelekile ye-G.652.D ikhuphuke ngokushesha isuka cishe ku-3usd ngekhilomitha eliyi-core ekupheleni kuka-2025 yaya ku-7.5usd ngekhilomitha eliyi-core. Izilinganiso ze-Spot eziteshini ezithile zokusabalalisa zidlule uphawu lwe-7.5usd—ezinye zize zidlule ngisho nophawu lwe-12usd ngekhilomitha eliphakathiumkhawulo—ukubeka ukuphakama okusha kweminyaka eyisikhombisa ukuze kukhuphuke amanani aqongelelekayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imicu ekhethekile ephezulu njenge-G.657.A2 kanye ne-G.654.E ibhekane nokwenyuka kwentengo okubaluleke kakhulu.

Abantu abaningana abangaphakathi embonini abaxoxiswene nabo ngalolu daba babonise ukuthi lo mjikelezo wokwenyuka kwamanani uqhutshwa ukwanda okugxilile kwesidingo okuvela emithonjeni eminingi: ingqalasizinda yokubala ye-AI, isinyathelo se-"Eastern Data, Western Computing", kanye nokumbozwa okujulile kwenethiwekhi ye-5G. Lokhu kwenyuka kwesidingo kwandiswa yimikhawulo eqinile kumthamo wokukhiqiza we-optical fiber preform kanye nokuhlinzekwa okuqinile kwezinto zokusetshenziswa eziphezulu, okudala ukungalingani okukhulu phakathi kokunikezwa nesidingo. Ngenxa yalezi zici, amanani amasheya ezinkampani ezisohlwini lwe-A-share ngaphakathi kwezintambo zemboni ye-optical fiber, ikhebula, kanye nezokuxhumana kwe-optical aqhubeke nokuqina. Amabhizinisi aholayo abika izincwadi zoku-oda ezigcwele kanye nokubuyekezwa okuphezulu kwezibikezelo zawo zenzuzo, okubonisa ukuthi imboni ifinyelela iphuzu elibalulekile lokushintsha—ukuguquka kusuka esigabeni sezimpi zamanani kuya kwesinye sokubuyiselwa kwenzuzo.

**Ukunyuka Kwentengo Ye-Optical Fiber Kuqala Ukusebenza Ngokugcwele**

Njengoba “uhlelo lwezinzwa” lwengqalasizinda yedijithali, i-optical fiber isebenza njengendawo eyinhloko yokudlulisa amandla ekhompyutha ye-AI, ilula ukuxhumana kwe-5G, ixhumanisa izikhungo zedatha, futhi isekele iphrojekthi ethi “Eastern Data, Western Computing”. Ukusebenza kwayo kanye nokuhlinzekwa kwayo kunquma ngqo isivinini kanye nekhwalithi yentuthuko yomnotho wedijithali.

Igagasi lamanje lokwenyuka kwentengo ye-optical fiber laqala ngekota yesine ka-2025 futhi langena endleleni ekhuphuka ngokushesha phakathi kukaJanuwari noFebhuwari ka-2026. Lokhu akusikho nje ukwenyuka kwentengo kwendawo okuthinta imininingwane ethile, kodwa kunalokho ukwenyuka kwentengo okuphelele okuhlanganisa zonke izigaba zomkhiqizo kanye neziteshi zokusabalalisa.

Ngokuqondile, idatha evela ku-CRU ikhombisa ukuthi intengo yemakethe emaphakathi ye-G.652.D single-mode fiber—uhlobo olusetshenziswa kakhulu emkhakheni wezokuxhumana—ikhuphuke isuka ngaphansi kwama-yuan angu-20 ngekhilomitha eliphakathi ngoNovemba 2025 yaya phakathi kwama-yuan angu-40 nama-50 ngekhilomitha eliphakathi ngoFebhuwari 2026. Ukwenyuka okuphezulu kwanyanga zonke kudlule ama-75%, okwenze amanani aphindwe kabili phakathi nezinyanga ezintathu nje.

Ngokombono wokuthengwa kwezimpahla, ukwenyuka kwamanani ngasikhathi sinye ngaphakathi kwamathenda okuthengwa kwezimpahla aqhutshwa yizinkampani kuqinisekisa ngokwengeziwe ubuqiniso kanye nokusimama kwalesi siwombe samanje sokwenyuka kwentengo.

Igebe elikhulayo phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo lihlala liyisici esiyinhloko esisekela lo mkhuba wokwenyuka kwamanani. I-Guotai Haitong Securities ithi, ngokumelene nokwenyuka okukhulu okujikelezayo emkhakheni we-fiber optics, umkhuba wokwenyuka kwamanani embonini yonke uqinisekisiwe. Ngemva kokubhekana nengcindezi eyehlayo engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka odlule, amanani e-fiber optical avulekile aphinde akhuphuka engxenyeni yesibili; lokhu kusimama kwabangelwa ukwanda okukhulu kwesidingo saphesheya kwezilwandle se-fiber G.657.A2, okwabangela ushintsho kumthamo wokukhiqiza. Njengoba umthamo ushintsha kusuka ku-fiber G.652.D—okwaholela ekunciphiseni kokunikezwa kanye nokwelula kancane kancane izikhathi zokuhola—amanani e-fiber evulekile aqhubeke nomzila wawo wokukhuphuka ezikhathini zamuva.

**Umkhuba Osezoqhubeka Isikhathi Esithile**

Ukwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani e-fiber optic okwamanje akukhona nje ukuguquguquka kwemakethe kwesikhashana okubangelwa ukuqagela kwesikhathi esifushane; kunalokho, kuwumphumela wokuxhumana kwezinto eziningi, okuhlanganisa ukungalingani phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo, izakhiwo zezindleko eziqinile, kanye nokwenza ngcono isimo semboni.

Phakathi kwalezi zici, ukukhula okukhulu ohlangothini lwesidingo—kuhlanganiswe nemikhawulo eqinile ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka—kwakha imbangela eyinhloko. Ngokombono wesidingo, ukwakhiwa okusheshayo kwengqalasizinda yokubala ye-AI kuye kwavela njengomshayeli oyinhloko okhuthaza isidingo se-fiber optical.

Ngokusetshenziswa okukhulu kwe-AI ekhiqizayo kanye namamodeli ezilimi ezinkulu, ijubane lokwakhiwa kwezikhungo zedatha ze-AI ezisezingeni eliphezulu liyaqhubeka nokusheshisa. Isikhungo sedatha se-AI esisodwa esisezingeni eliphezulu sisebenzisa inani eliphindwe kathathu kuya kahlanu le-fiber optical uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhungo sedatha sendabuko; ngenxa yalokho, isidingo se-fiber ephansi, eshesha kakhulu—ebalulekile ekuxhumekeni kwangaphakathi kanye nokudluliselwa kweqembu elide—sikhula ngokushesha okukhulu.

Imijikelezo ye-fiber optic yangaphambilini yayivame ukuqhutshwa ukwanda kwe-broadband noma ukuthunyelwa kweziteshi ze-5G ngabasebenza ngezokuxhumana - imizamo ehloselwe ukubhekana nenkinga eyisisekelo "yokuthi ngabe ukuxhumana kukhona yini." Kodwa-ke, umjikelezo wamanje uqhutshwa yisidingo sokusekela izidingo zokubala ezivame kakhulu zamamodeli amakhulu e-AI - ikakhulukazi, ukubhekana nenselele "yokuthutha amandla ekhompyutha." Lokhu kushintsha kwesidingo - ukusuka kungqimba lokufinyelela lomsebenzisi wokugcina kuya emakamelweni emishini eyinhloko kanye ne-Data Center Interconnects (DCI) - kushintshe ngokuyisisekelo izidingo zezintambo ze-optical ezikhethekile ezisebenza kahle kakhulu, ezilahlekelwa kancane.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuqhubeka kokusabalala okujulile kwe-5G kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamanethiwekhi e-6G okubheke phambili nakho kukhulisa kancane kancane isidingo se-optical fiber. Isidingo sokubalwa okuphezulu kwe-fiber core ngaphakathi kwamanethiwekhi e-fronthaul kanye ne-midhaul eziteshini zesisekelo ze-5G sikhuphuke kakhulu; ngaphezu kwalokho, izinhlelo ezifana nokuvuselelwa kwezindawo zasemakhaya kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwe-"Gigabit Cities" kuqhuba ukuthuthukiswa kwamanethiwekhi e-Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) abe yisivinini se-10-Gigabit, okuqinisekisa ukukhula okuqinile nokuqhubekayo kwesidingo emkhakheni wezokuxhumana wendabuko.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, intuthuko esheshayo yezimo zohlelo lokusebenza ezivelayo—njenge-Industrial Internet, i-fibre optics yezimoto, kanye nokuxhumana ngezindiza—kuye kwandisa kakhulu amathuba okukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo se-fibre optic. Lokhu kuthuthuka kushintshe isakhiwo sesidingo semboni: ukusuka ekuthembeleni okukodwa ekuthengweni okuphakathi ngabaqhubi bezokuxhumana, kuyashintsha kuye endaweni yesidingo esihlukahlukene nesiphezulu.

Isici esichazayo segagasi lamanje lokwenyuka kwentengo ye-fiber optic ukuthi kuwukwenyuka kwentengo *yesakhiwo*, okuqhutshwa kakhulu yihlangothi lesidingo. Ukwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda yokubala ye-AI kanye nezinhlelo ezifana nephrojekthi ethi "Eastern Data, Western Computing" kubangele ukwanda okukhulu kwesidingo sezintambo ze-optical; ngesikhathi esifanayo, isidingo sama-drone e-FPV optical-fiber empi nawo akhuphuke kakhulu. Nokho, ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka, imingcele emandleni okukhiqizwa kwama-preforms e-optical fiber (izinduku ze-preform) zenze kwaba nzima ukuphendula ngokushesha kulokhu kukhula. Lokhu kungafani phakathi kokuhlinzeka nesidingo kuholele ekukhuleni okukhulu kwesikhashana kwamanani. Ngokungafani nezimo zangaphambilini—lapho ukwenyuka kwentengo kwakuqhutshwa kakhulu ukuthengwa okuphakathi ngabaqhubi bezokuxhumana kanye neminye imithombo yendabuko yokufunwa, futhi lapho imijikelezo yokuguquguquka kwentengo yayifushane—ukuhlangana kwamanje kuphethwe yi-AI kanye neminye imikhakha ekhulayo. Kumelela ukuguquka kwesakhiwo kwesikhathi eside okwenzeka phakathi kokuguqulwa okukhulu kwemboni; ukukhula kwesidingo kubonakala kokubili ukusimama kanye nobukhulu, kunokuba kube nje umkhiqizo wokuqagela kwesikhathi esifushane.

Umshayeli oyinhloko ngemuva kwalolu chungechunge lokukhuphuka kwamanani yisithiyo somthamo we-preform ye-fiber optical. Ngaphakathi kochungechunge lwemboni ye-fiber optical, ama-preform anquma umkhawulo ophezulu wokuphakelwa; le ngxenye ibonakala ngezithiyo zobuchwepheshe eziphezulu, imijikelezo ende yokwanda kwamandla, kanye nezidingo ezinkulu zemali, okwenza kube nzima ukuthi ukuphakelwa kuhambisane nokukhula kwesidingo. Uma sibheka phambili, uma umthamo wokukhiqiza we-preform uvulwa kancane kancane ngokufakwa kwemishini emisha kanye nentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe, ukungalingani kokuphakelwa nokufunwa cishe kuzoncipha, futhi amanani e-fiber optical azobuyela kancane kancane ebangeni elifanele. Kodwa-ke, uma ukuthuthukiswa kwe-AI kanye neminye imikhakha kudlula okulindelwe—kuqhubeka, ukukhula okukhulu kwesidingo—ngenkathi ukwanda kwamandla we-preform kungaphansi kwezilinganiso, amanani angase ahlale emazingeni aphezulu noma aqhubeke nokukhuphuka phakathi kokuguquguquka.

Enqubweni yokukhiqiza i-optical fiber, i-optical fiber preform (induku ye-preform) yakha isigaba esiyinhloko. Ibala u-60% kuya ku-70% wezindleko zokukhiqiza eziphelele futhi imelela ingxenye enezithiyo zobuchwepheshe eziphakeme kakhulu kanye nezidingo ezinkulu zokutshalwa kwezimali. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umjikelezo wokwakha womugqa owodwa wokukhiqiza i-preform ubanzi, ngokuvamile uthatha izinyanga ezingu-18 kuya kwezingu-24—inqubo ende ehlanganisa konke kusukela ekuvunyelweni kwephrojekthi, ukuthengwa kwemishini, ukufakwa, kanye nokuqaliswa kwayo kuze kube sekukhuphukeni kokugcina kwamandla okukhiqiza.

Kusukela ngo-2019 kuya ku-2024, imboni ye-optical fiber yacwila empini yentengo ende eyanciphisa kakhulu inzuzo yenkampani. Ngenxa yalokho, amabhizinisi amaningi akhethe ukunciphisa izindleko zawo zezimali, okwaholela ekungezeni okulinganiselwe kakhulu kumthamo wokukhiqiza wangaphambi kwesikhathi phakathi nalesi sikhathi.

Noma kunjalo, abantu abangaphakathi embonini bakholelwa ukuthi lokhu kunyuka okungavamile kwamanani e-optical fiber cishe ngeke kuphele maduze.

Izindleko ezikhulayo zemicu ye-optical zibonisa ukuntuleka kwezinto eziyisisekelo ezisekela umnotho wedijithali. Nakuba lokhu kucindezela kwezindleko kungase kudluliselwe kubasebenzi bezokuxhumana, kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi kungene ngaphakathi kweprimiyamu iyonke ehlobene nokuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda ye-AI. Uma nje umjaho womhlaba wonke wamandla e-AI computing uqhubeka unganciphi, lokhu kuntuleka kwesakhiwo—okugxile ekuthuthukisweni kobuchwepheshe—akunakuxazululwa kalula esikhathini esifushane ngokumane kukhuliswe umthamo wokukhiqiza okhona. Isidingo esibucayi sezikhungo zekhompyutha ezihlakaniphile ze-bandwidth ephezulu kakhulu kanye nokudluliselwa kwe-low-latency sizibeke njengenjini eyinhloko eqhuba ukukhula kwesidingo se-fiber optics, ngaleyo ndlela kushintshe ngokuyisisekelo ukuguquguquka kwesidingo semboni ye-fiber. Uma kuqhathaniswa nezikhungo zedatha zendabuko, izidingo ze-fiber optic zesikhungo sekhompyutha esisodwa esihlakaniphile zingaba ziningana—noma zingaphezu kweshumi—ngokuphindwe kayishumi; iqoqo elijwayelekile le-GPU eliqukethe amakhadi ayi-10,000, isibonelo, lidinga amashumi ezinkulungwane zamakhilomitha e-fiber-core kuphela ukuze kuxhunyaniswe iseva yangaphakathi. Isabelo sesidingo se-fiber optic esibangelwa yizimo zesikhungo sedatha sangaphakathi esiqhutshwa yi-AI kanye ne-DCI (Data Center Interconnect) kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke sisuka ngaphansi kuka5% ngo-2024 kuya ku-35% ngo-2027.